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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 700 miles southeast of 
Bermuda continues to produce a small cluster of showers and 
thunderstorms northeast of its center.  However, the low is 
embedded in a very dry environment, and therefore significant 
development is not expected while it moves generally northward at 5 
to 10 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure should form during the next few days 
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of 
Central America.  Thereafter, gradual development of this system is 
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system 
moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and 
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week.  Regardless of 
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over 
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of 
Africa on Sunday or Monday.  Gradual development of this system is 
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form next week 
while the wave moves westward across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Beven