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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Isaac, located several hundred miles east of the Azores, and on 
Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central tropical Atlantic 
Ocean.  The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene, located inland over the Ohio River 
Valley.

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure, associated with a 
tropical wave, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms 
near and to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, 
and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle 
part of next week while the system moves toward the west and then 
northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea in 
a few days.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive 
for additional development thereafter while the system moves 
generally northwestward, and a tropical depression could form during 
the middle to latter part of next week as the system enters the Gulf 
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO 
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO 
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik