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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2023
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles to the south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form over the next day or two while
the system moves generally westward near 15 mph, moving further away
from the Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
2. Central East Pacific:
A small area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to
produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions do not appear to be conducive for development of this
system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
3. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form late this week a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some gradual
development is possible by the upcoming weekend while the system
moves west-northwestward or northwestward, roughly parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Papin