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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Oct 1 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico (EP98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated in 
association with a developing area of low pressure located several 
hundred miles south of the coast of southern and southwestern 
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional 
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the 
next day or two while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward 
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. South of Central America:
A broad area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south of 
the coast of Central America toward the end of this week. 
Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable 
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression 
could form by next weekend as it moves slowly westward to 
west-northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin