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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 17 2023
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico are gradually becoming better organized, but the low still
does not have a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is very likely to form later today or tonight. This
system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward and then turn
northwestward or northward late in the week offshore of the coast
of southwestern Mexico. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
2. South of Guatemala and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and southern Mexico in a couple of days. Gradual
development of the disturbance is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend
while the system meanders over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
Forecaster Kelly