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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 31 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming more 
organized near an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles 
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  If these current trends 
continue, this system is expected to become a tropical depression as 
soon as later this morning. The system is forecast to move westward 
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days, 
remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Western East Pacific (EP95):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association 
with an area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles to 
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. 
Some gradual development of this system remains possible, and a 
tropical depression could form by this weekend.  This system is 
forecast to move slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the 
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the coast of 
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards, 
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this 
weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days, 
remaining offshore. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. 


Forecaster Papin