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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Carlotta, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of 
Manzanillo, Mexico.

1. Western East Pacific (EP95):
An area of low pressure located more than a thousand miles to the 
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula 
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity 
around its center. Environmental conditions appear marginal for some 
development of this system during the next couple of days while it 
drifts slowly westward. By this weekend, environmental conditions 
are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable, and further 
development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of 
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during 
the next day or so, and thereafter environmental conditions appear 
conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is 
likely to form by this weekend or early next week while the system 
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining 
well offshore of the coast of Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Papin