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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Carlotta, located several hundred miles west of Manzanillo, 
Mexico.

1. Western East Pacific (EP95):
An area of low pressure located more than a thousand miles to the 
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula 
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions appear marginal for development of this 
system during the next couple of days while it drifts slowly 
westward. By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to 
become increasingly unfavorable, and further development is not 
expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of 
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during 
the next day or so, and thereafter environmental conditions appear 
conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is 
likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the 
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, 
remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Bucci