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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the 
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of showers 
and thunderstorms that are beginning to show signs of organization. 
Upper-level winds are forecast to be generally conducive for 
additional development of this system over the weekend, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while it 
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the central portion 
of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form this weekend or 
early next week more than one thousand miles west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Thereafter, slow 
development of this system is anticipated, and a tropical depression 
is likely form during the middle part of next week while it moves 
westward to west-northwestward across the western portion of the 
basin and into the Central Pacific basin. Information on this 
system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather 
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

3. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A small area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian 
Islands is associated with some disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible this 
weekend into early next week while it moves slowly over the western 
portion of the East Pacific or Central Pacific basin. By the middle 
of next week, this system could merge with a larger system expected 
to develop to its east. Information on this system's development can 
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central 
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be 
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on 
the web at hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Papin