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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the 
southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce a distinct area of 
showers and thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization. 
Upper-level winds are forecast to be generally conducive for 
additional development of this system through the weekend, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days 
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 mph across the 
central portion of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with a 
broad trough of low pressure located more than one thousand miles 
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 
While this system may interact with another area of low pressure to 
its west-southwest over the next several days, some gradual 
development of this system is forecasted if it remains the dominant 
disturbance. A tropical depression is likely form during the middle 
part of next week while the system moves westward to 
west-northwestward over the western portion of the basin and into 
the Central Pacific basin by the end of the week. Information on 
this system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather 
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

3. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A small area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian 
Islands is associated with some disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible this 
weekend into early next week while it moves slowly over the western 
portion of the East Pacific or Central Pacific basin. By the middle 
of next week, this system could merge with a larger system 
developing to its east. Information on this system's development can 
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central 
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be 
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on 
the web at hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Papin