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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Gilma, located more than one thousand miles west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 

1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91/CP90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of 
organization with an area of low pressure located well 
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Only a slight improvement in 
organization could result in the formation of a tropical depression 
or tropical storm later today while it moves generally westward at 
10 to 15 mph. This system is currently crossing into the Central 
Pacific basin, where it is then forecast to strengthen during the 
next couple of days and move near the Hawaiian Islands late this 
weekend or early next week. For marine forecasts, including gale 
warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.

Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor this disturbance, though 
it remains too soon to determine the exact location and magnitude of 
potential impacts. Now that the system is moving into the Central 
Pacific basin, all future information on this system will be found 
in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific Basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92): 
A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles to the 
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and is 
currently producing an area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms primarily west of its center. Environmental conditions 
are forecast to be generally conducive for development over the next 
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 
mph over the central portion of the East Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on 
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php 

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be 
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on 
the web at hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Papin