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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of 
southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. After that time, 
environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for 
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
by the middle or latter portions of this week. The disturbance is 
forecast to meander near or just offshore the coast for much of the 
week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to 
the coast of Mexico by this weekend. Regardless of development, this 
system is expected to contribute to additional heavy rainfall across 
portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico already adversely 
affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests there 
should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: 
Another area of low pressure has developed in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms 
primarily offshore of southern Mexico. The system is forecast to 
move erratically through mid-week before drifting northward towards 
the southern Mexican coast, and some additional development of the 
system is possible while it remains offshore. Regardless of 
formation, heavy rain is possible along most of the coast of 
southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Papin