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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to gradually form off the coast 
of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive for development after that 
time, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of 
the week. The disturbance is forecast to meander near or just 
offshore of the coast of Mexico for much of the week, and then 
begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of 
Mexico by this weekend. Regardless of development, this system is 
expected to contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by 
substantial rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor 
the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (96E): 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have continued to become better 
organized this afternoon. Although the system does not yet appear to 
have a well-defined surface circulation, environmental conditions 
are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form as soon as tonight or 
tomorrow. This system is forecast to meander for the next couple of 
days before drifting northward towards the southern coast of Mexico, 
and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. 
Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along most of the 
coast of southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout 
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.


Forecaster D. Zelinsky