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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of 
southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development after that 
time, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of 
the week. The disturbance is forecast to meander near or just 
offshore of the coast of Mexico for much of the week, and then begin 
moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico by 
this weekend. Regardless of development, this system is expected to 
contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern 
coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial 
rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor the progress 
of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (96E): 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have changed little in organization 
during the past several hours. Although the system does not yet 
appear to have a well-defined surface circulation, environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or 
two. This system is forecast to meander for the next couple of days 
before drifting northward towards the southern coast of Mexico, and 
interests there should monitor the progress of this system. 
Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along portions of 
the coast of southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout 
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.


Forecaster Hagen