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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP96):
Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated 
with an area of low pressure near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have 
become better organized since yesterday.  If current trends 
continue, advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression 
this afternoon, and watches or warnings could be required for a 
portion of the southeastern coast of Mexico.  Additionally, heavy 
rain is likely along portions of the coast of southern Mexico and 
northern Central America throughout this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP97):
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast 
of Acapulco continues to produce disorganized shower and 
thunderstorm activity.  While environmental conditions are 
generally conducive for development, the proximity of this system 
to the low pressure area near the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP96) could 
limit development chances during the first couple of days. Later 
this week, the system is forecast to begin moving slowly west- 
northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico, with development 
chances increasing by this weekend. This system is expected to 
contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern 
coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by 
substantial rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor 
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


Forecaster Blake