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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

Corrected to include mention of possible aircraft reconnaissance
mission for system in the Gulf of Mexico.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located several hundred miles west of Bermuda.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a weak low
pressure area located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has
increased during the past few hours. Some additional development is
possible before the system moves inland over southern Texas and
northern Mexico on Thursday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. This
system is now expected to move generally westward across the
Caribbean Sea with little development during the next few days.
However, environmental conditions could become favorable for some
development by early next week in the western Caribbean Sea or
southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Friday. Conditions appear to be favorable for some development
thereafter while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across
the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brown/Brennan

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