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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low 
pressure area centered about 450 miles east-northeast of Bermuda 
have become better organized during the past several hours.  The 
low has not yet acquired subtropical storm characteristics.  
However, if current trends continue advisories could be initiated 
on the system later today or tonight as it moves westward 
to west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda.  Subsequently, 
the low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile 
environment by Saturday night or Sunday.  Additional information on 
this low pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by 
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a 
tropical storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is 
forming associated with the mid- to upper-level disturbance over the 
western Gulf of Mexico. However, shower and thunderstorm activity 
remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be 
marginally conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical 
depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland 
over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight. Regardless of development, 
the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of 
southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few 
days.  Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential 
can be found in products issued by your local National Weather 
Service Forecast Office. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Beven/Papin