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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: 
A large area of disturbed weather has developed near the Yucatan 
Peninsula, partially related to the remnants of Agatha interacting 
with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Despite this 
marginal environment, this system is likely to become a tropical 
depression by Friday as it moves northeastward across the Yucatan 
Peninsula, the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and southeastern Gulf of 
Mexico.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely 
across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, 
Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading 
across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on 
Friday and Saturday.  Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western 
Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the 
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Papin