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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: 
A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the 
Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and Yucatan Peninsula.  Despite strong upper-level winds, gradual 
development is forecast and this system is likely to become a 
tropical depression while it moves slowly northeastward over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during 
the next day or two.  Regardless of development, locally heavy 
rainfall is likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula during 
the next day or so, spreading across western Cuba, South Florida, 
and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the 
Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida 
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas:
A weak surface trough located about 150 miles northeast of the 
northwest Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity. 
Surface pressures are currently high across the area, and 
significant development of this system appears unlikely as it moves 
generally east-northeastward over the next several days away from 
the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Brown/Bucci