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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Fiona, located just southeast of the Turks and Caicos islands.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to increase in 
association with an area of low pressure located over the central 
subtropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear marginally 
favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form over the next couple of days before upper-level winds 
become less conducive later this week.  The system should generally 
move northward or northeastward while remaining over the open waters 
of central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward 
Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Gradual development of this system is forecast 
during the next several days as the system approaches the Windward 
Islands, and a tropical depression could form toward the latter 
part of this week or weekend as the system moves into the eastern 
and central Caribbean sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin