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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure stretching from the eastern Caribbean Sea 
northward to the southwestern Atlantic continues to produce a broad 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The northern part of 
this trough axis is expected to result in the formation of a surface 
cyclone, and environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for 
subtropical development of this system thereafter. A subtropical 
depression could form while the system moves northward during the 
next couple of days. The system is then forecast to meander over the 
subtropical western Atlantic to the west or southwest of Bermuda as 
upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for 
development by the end of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern 
Caribbean Sea this weekend, possibly related to the southern part of 
an existing trough of low pressure over the area. Thereafter, 
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week 
while the disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward 
into the central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Papin