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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms, along with gusty winds in 
these thunderstorms.  Some gradual development of this system is 
possible over next day or so while it moves westward at about 15 to 
20 mph across the central Caribbean Sea.  After that time, the wave 
is forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the 
system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. An elongated area of low pressure, located a little over 1000 miles 
east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a concentrated 
area of showers and thunderstorms mainly on the west side of the 
disturbance.  Environmental conditions are conducive for further 
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during 
the next day or two while the system moves generally 
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western 
portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

3. A large area of showers and thunderstorms, located over Guinea and 
Sierra-Leone, Africa, is associated with a vigorous tropical wave.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for 
some development of this system while the wave enters the extreme 
eastern Atlantic on Friday.  By early next week, however, conditions 
are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation 
while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Latto