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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Nicholas, located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. 

1. A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is 
producing an area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual 
development of this disturbance over the next several days, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the 
system moves westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical 
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a couple of 
hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a 
tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough.  Some gradual 
development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical 
depression could form later this week while the system moves 
north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brown