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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea 
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms 
extending from the Windward Islands west-northwestward for several 
hundred miles.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next 
week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or 
west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.  Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the 
Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this 
weekend. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Western Atlantic:
Satellite data indicate that a well-defined low pressure area 
located about 160 miles west of Bermuda is currently producing a 
limited amount of shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental 
conditions are forecast to remain only marginally conducive, and 
any additional development should be slow to occur over the next 
day or so.  By late Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to 
become even less favorable, and the low is expected to begin 
interacting with an approaching frontal system.  Therefore, 
development after that time is not anticipated. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven