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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fifteen-E, located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. An area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system
is centered just off the southwestern coast of Mexico.  This
activity continues to show signs of organization and a tropical
depression is likely to form later today or tomorrow before the
system moves inland over southwestern Mexico.  Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are expected to begin spreading
inland over southwestern Mexico later today.  These rains could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while
it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

3. Another area of low pressure is located more than 1700 miles
west-southwest of the Baja California peninsula.  Development, if
any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it
moves little during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila