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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 30 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 1500 miles west-southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions 
are expected to be conducive for slow development during the next 
several days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend 
or early next week while the system moves generally westward at 
5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
an elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles 
west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  This system is moving 
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, and some slow development is 
possible through early Friday before it reaches an area of stronger 
upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart