
JHT 2015-2017 Goals
Overview | 2019-2022 Projects | Past Projects | Admin Presentations | Staff | Committee | FAQ | Publications
Passive Microwave Data Exploitation via the NRL Tropical Cyclone Webpage: R. Bankert, J. Cossuth, and K. Richardson (NRL)
- Enhance the near-realtime 37 and 85/89/91 GHz H/V/PCT/color imagery products for all global TCs
- Populate an archive of historical passive microwave data since 1987. A standardized database of both digitial data and image products will be generated and made available to the TC community to compliment the near-realtime data.
- A study and application of a more sophisticated parallax correction scheme will be created to provide increased confidence in the initialization of the TC center.
- Revised color tables used to visualize the TCs.
Improvements in Operational Statistical Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Models: G. Chirokova and A. Schumacher (CSU/CIRA)
- Replace weekly SSts with 1 deg. resolution with daily SST with 0.25 deg. resolution.
- Add a physical mechanism to account for storm-induced SST cooling.
- Add forecasts of TC structure (wind radii and MSLP) to SHIPS/LGEM.
Improvements to the Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index (TCGI): J. Dunion (U of Miami/CIMAS/AOML), A. Schumacher (CSU/CIRA), J. Kaplan (NOAA/AOML), and J. Cossuth (NRL)
- Extend the TCGI into the eastern and central North Pacific (EPAC and CPAC) basins.
- Refine the current and test the new TCGI predictors.
- Add forecasts of TC structure (wind radii and MSLP) to SHIPS/LGEM.
Improvement and Implementation of the Probability-based Microwave Ring Rapid Intensification Index for NHC/JTWC Forecast Basins: H. Jiang, (Florida Intl. Univ.) and K. Musgrave (CSU/CIRA)
- Add two additional 37 GHz predictors to the probability-based RI Index.
- Implement the probability-based RI index to all the JTWC forecast basins which will include adjusting the original algorithm for each newly added basin.
Guidance on Observational Undersampling over the Tropical Cyclone Lifecycle: D. Nolan (U of Miami/RSMAS) and E. Uhlhorn (NOAA/AOML)
- Compute systematic underestimates of hurricane intensity as measured by airborne SFMR instruments, surface observations (such as ships or buoys), and scatterometers.
- Create a product that will be guidance for forecasts and for post-season analysts as to how to interpret SFMR, scatterometer, and point measurements of surface winds and pressure for differing classes of TCs.
Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Using Satellite Passive Microwave Imagery: C. Rozoff and C. Velden (U of Wisc/CIMSS)
- Add new TC structure predictors to the updated MI-based developmental datasets.
- Automate and convert the model codes so that they are compatible with the NCEP's realtime framework.
- Provide documentation for running and maintaining the model codes.
Improved Eyewall Replacement Cycle Forecasting Using a Modified Microwave-Based Algorithm (ARCHER): A. Wimmers (U of Wisc/CIMSS) and J. Kossin (NOAA/NCDC)
- Create a real-time microwave-derived variables relating to ERC using components of the ARCHER algorithm.
- Create a real-time display of these variables as a forecasting aid.
- Integrate this information into a new prediction scheme in the fashion of the probability of ERC model.
Transition of the Coastal and Estuarine Storm Tide Model to an Operational Model for Forecasting Storm Surges:K. Zhang (FIU)
- Test CEST on existing and recently developed Sea, Lake, and OVerland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model basins.
- Develop a CEST probability surge model through collaboration with Meteorological Development Lab (MDL).
- Conduct real-time surge forecasting with NHC during hurricane seasons.
- Port CEST to the Linux operating system used by NHC.
- Prepare documents and train staff members at NHC to use CEST.