940 
AXNT20 KNHC 231037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Dec 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 08N13W and continues westward to 03N19W. The ITCZ 
extends from 03N19W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 04N to 06N and between 13W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure north of the Gulf of Mexico continues to dominate
the basin, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas. Dry weather conditions are prevalent across the
basin at this time.

For the forecast, the high pressure centered over the United 
States will continue to lead to moderate/fresh E winds and slight
to moderate seas through the week. Winds will then veer southerly
ahead of a cold front that may move off the Texas coast by the 
end of the week. An increase in moisture and light winds will 
favor at least patchy fog along the NW Gulf coast on Tue and Wed 
mornings. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture result in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the central
Caribbean waters, while generally drier conditions are prevalent 
in the rest of the basin. A moderate pressure gradient sustains 
moderate to locally strong NE-E winds over much of the Caribbean, 
with the strongest winds occurring in the Windward Passage due to 
a nearby frontal boundary. Moderate seas are found in the 
Caribbean waters, peaking near 8 ft off eastern Nicaragua based on
latest altimeter data.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the basin continues
to increase the pressure gradient over the area and causing 
moderate NE to E winds to increase to fresh to strong on Mon 
night/Tue. Winds will then relax some for the latter half of the 
week. Moderate seas will prevail across the central Caribbean 
through the period, and slight seas will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N60W to 26N68W, then it becomes a 
stationary front and snakes its way to the Treasure Coast of 
Florida. Moderate to strong NE winds are noted north of the 
frontal boundary, along with seas of 6-9 ft. The strongest winds 
are occurring off NE Florida. Farther east, another cold front 
enters the basin near 31N54W and continues southwestward to 
25N62W, becoming a stationary front and continuing to northern 
Haiti. Scattered showers are evident on satellite imagery within 
250 nm east of the boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
captured moderate to fresh N-NE winds behind the frontal 
boundary. Seas in these waters are also 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh 
southerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present ahead of the front 
to 50W and north of 27N. 

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a
robust 1041 mb high pressure system positioned NE of the Azores. 
The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in 
western Africa and the deep tropics support fresh to strong NE-E 
winds north of 11N and east of 40W. This was confirmed by a 
scatterometer data. Rough seas are found in these waters, peaking
near 12 ft west of the Canary Islands. In the rest of the waters 
between Africa and the Lesser Antilles (south of 20N), moderate to
locally fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the frontal boundary that currently 
extends from 31N53W to Hispaniola will drift E of the area by 
midweek. High pressure building behind the front will lead to 
increasing winds E of the Bahamas, with strong winds and rough 
seas likely tonight into Tue night. A surface trough off the SE 
United States coast may least to fresh to strong winds offshore NE
Florida early this week.

$$
ERA