933 
AXPZ20 KNHC 090932
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu May 09 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure that is over 
northern Colombia, west-southwestward to 07N78W to 07N84W and
northwestward to 12N90W and southwestward to 11N99W to 08N105W 
to 10N116W to 08N121W, where latest scatterometer data indicates
the ITCZ begins and continues to 06N125W to 07N130W and to 
beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate strong convection is seen 
within 120 nm N of the trough between 101W-105W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm N of the 
trough between 106W-109W. Scattered moderate within 60 nm of
09N92W and 05N114W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure is centered well N of the area. A broad
ridge extends southward from the high across the regional 
Pacific waters and weakly southeast over the offshore waters of 
Baja California to the Revillagigedo Islands. Low pressure 
extends northward along the entire coast of California. The 
pressure gradient between the high pressure and this area of low 
pressure is generally allowing for moderate northwest winds over 
the offshore waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lucas and 
for moderate to fresh northwest to north winds S of Cabo San 
Lucas. Seas across most of the Baja waters are 6 to 8 ft, except 
7 to 10 ft in northwest swell N of Punta Eugenia. Inside the 
Gulf of California, winds are moderate, southwest to west in 
direction except for gentle west winds over the central part of 
the Gulf. Seas over the Gulf are 2 to 3 ft, except 5 to 7 ft in 
southwest swell at the entrance of the Gulf and 3 to 4 ft over 
the northern part. Elsewhere over the south and southwestern 
Mexican offshore waters, winds are gentle to moderate, west to 
northwest in direction, and become onshore across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, while seas remain 5 to 6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure that is well N of the
local area will shift westward today, then southward and weaken 
through the weekend. This will maintain moderate northwest winds 
offshore Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro and generally 
moderate to fresh northwest winds S of Cabo San Lazaro through 
the weekend. Norhwest swell will continue to move into the Baja 
offshore waters through Fri, with seas in excess of 8 ft 
persisting across the waters N through W of Punta Eugenia through
tonight before subsiding. Gentle to locally moderate west to 
northwest winds along with moderate seas are expected elsewhere 
across the S and southwestern Mexican offshore waters through Mon
night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A rather weak pressure pattern is in place over this part of 
the area. Atmospheric moisture has substantially increased 
here during the past 48 hours as the typical monsoonal 
circulation for this time of year becomes seasonally established.
Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms over most of these waters, except for isolated 
showers and thunderstorms E of 84W including over some sections 
of Central America and southwestern Caribbean. Some of this 
activity may be accompanied by gusty winds at times and moderate 
to rough seas. Frequent lighting may also accompany the activity 
once it begins to exhibit a clustering pattern today. Winds 
remain light and variable and seas moderate, 4 to 5 ft in S 
swell. Between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 
winds are mainly moderate from the S to SW in direction along  
with seas of 5 to 6 ft in S swell.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest 
winds are expected S of the monsoon trough, roughly along 09N, 
through Fri, which will feed moisture into shower and 
thunderstorm activity currently over the area waters. This 
activity will shift slowly westward of 90W by Fri afternoon. 
Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere along with 
moderate seas in a south swell. Otherwise, new southerly swell 
entering the region will maintain seas of 6 to 7 ft S of the 
Galapagos Islands through Sun, and build briefly to near 8 ft Fri
night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1034 mb is centered well N of the 
discussion area. Broad ridging extends from it southward across 
the subtropical waters between 110W and 140W. The gradient 
related to this ridge is maintaining moderate to fresh northwest 
to north winds are north of 25N between 120W and 1305W. Overnight
ASCAT data indicates that gentle to moderate north to northeast 
winds are present elsewhere north of 20N between 122W and 130W. 
These winds become northeast to east W of 130W. Seas across this
area N of 20N are 6 to 8 ft in northwest swell, except 7 to 10 
ft north of 27N and E of about 130W. S of 20N between the ridge 
and the ITCZ and W of 120W, moderate to locally fresh northeast 
to northeast to east winds along with seas of and 6 to 8 ft seas 
in northeast swell prevail. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds are present as seen in overnight ASCAT
data. Seas with these winds are 6 to 8 ft due to mixed southeast
and southwest swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds 
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds over the western part of 
the tropical waters will gradually become confined to between the
ITCZ and 20N through Sun, as high pressure N of the area
gradually weakens. Seas of 6 to 7 ft with small pockets of seas
to 8 ft are expected across the trade winds zone through Fri, 
then subside slightly through Sun. Northwest swell across the 
Baja California Norte waters producing seas of 7 to 10 ft will 
change little through this afternoon, then subside below 8 ft 
late by Fri night, and to 6 ft or less on Sat.

$$
Aguirre