977 
WTNT34 KNHC 151447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA SLOWING DOWN BETWEEN THE BAY ISLANDS AND NORTHERN MAINLAND
OF HONDURAS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 86.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras.
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to
the Belize-Guatemala border.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should 
monitor the progress of this system. Additional Watches and Warnings 
could be required for portions of these areas later this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.0 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A continued slow
westward motion is expected over the next day or so, but a
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move close
to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday before
approaching Belize, and ultimately moving onshore in Belize during
the day on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of days 
as long as Sara remains offshore of the coast of Honduras.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala and Belize beginning on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin