103 
WTNT34 KNHC 150844
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS...

...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 85.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Watches or 
Warnings will likely be required for portions of the coast of Belize 
later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 85.1 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued westward 
motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next day or 
so. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. 
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move 
close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then 
approach the coast of Belize early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days
when the center of Sara moves over water to the north of Honduras.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen