000
WTNT34 KNHC 171735
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
1200 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...SARA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED BUT HEAVY RAINFALL 
CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 89.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The governments of Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico have discontinued 
all Tropical Storm Warnings for their coastal regions. 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sara 
was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 89.0 West. Sara is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn 
northwestward with some increase in forward speed is expected 
through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move 
further inland over the Yucatan Peninsula today before it opens up 
into a trough by tonight or tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to continue as the depression 
moves further inland, and Sara is expected to become a remnant low 
before it opens up into a trough over the southern portion of the 
Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Sara can be found in the 
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO 
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at 
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected
over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as
40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La
Esperanza.

Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western 
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical 
Depression Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches 
of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will 
result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with 
the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Sara, please see the National Weather Service 
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin