733 
WTNT34 KNHC 152034
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA SLUGGISHLY MEANDERING NEAR THE HONDURAS COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 86.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm 
Warning from the Nicaragua/Honduras Border westward to Punta Patuca.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from 
Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal.

The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Warning 
from Belize City northward to Chetumal.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the 
Honduras-Guatemala border.
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the 
progress of this system. 

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was 
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 86.2 West. Sara is 
moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued slow 
westward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a 
more west-northwestward motion beginning late Saturday. On the 
forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the 
northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before 
approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the 
day on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, as 
long as the system remains offshore.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected 
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas 
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and 
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern 
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, 
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain 
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This 
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along 
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm 
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning 
on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly