000
WTNT34 KNHC 172034
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sara Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...SARA STILL ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 89.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sara was 
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 89.5 West. The 
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) 
and a turn northwestward is expected by tonight. On the forecast 
track, the center of Sara will continue to move over the Yucatan 
Peninsula today before it opens up into a trough either tonight or 
tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Further weakening is expected, and Sara is expected to become a 
remnant low or open up into a trough over the southern portion of 
the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Sara can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected
over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as
40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La
Esperanza.

Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical
Depression Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches
of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will
result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with
the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Sara, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin