000
AXNT20 KNHC 261011
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Dec 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 05N09W and continues westward to 03N20W. The ITCZ 
continues from 03N20W to 02N38W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02N to 06N and between 14W and 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the far east and far west
portions of the basin, while moderate winds are noted across the
central Gulf between 87W and 93W. Seas of 2-5 ft prevail across 
the Gulf of Mexico, with highest seas E of 89W. 

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern United
States will maintain mostly moderate southeast winds and slight
to moderate seas through early Fri, then winds may increase some
late Fri into Sat over the eastern Gulf as high pressure builds
southward from the southeastern United States, and a weak cold
front approaches eastern Texas. Relatively calm conditions are
expected on Sun as the weak cold front moves across the Gulf,
followed by weak high pressure that becomes established over the
NW Gulf at that time. Fresh southerly winds are expected to
become established in the western Gulf on Mon in response to a
frontal system that approaches E Texas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central Caribbean, with
strong winds pulsing over the waters N of Colombia. Gentle to 
moderate winds are elsewhere across the Caribbean waters. Seas are
in the 5-7 ft range in the central Caribbean, and 4-5 ft 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure to the
north and low pressure to the south will allow for moderate to
fresh trades across the central basin through this morning, with 
pulsing fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia. Winds will then 
diminish slightly and prevail trough early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N68W southwestward to 
26N75W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 7 ft are noted W of 
the front. Farther east, a stationary front is analyzed from
31N37W to 23N52W. Scattered showers are noted along and E of the
front. Rough seas in N swell prevail in the wake of this front, 
mainly between 35W and 52W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail 
elsewhere across the discussion waters. Seas of 4-8 ft prevail 
elsewhere across the discussion waters. A 1014 mb low is analyzed
near 30N19W, with surface trough from the low to 22N16W. Fresh to
strong winds and moderate seas prevail NE of the low just N of our
discussion waters. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere 
across the discussion waters, with seas of 4-8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 
31N69W to 28N75W by tonight, at which time a stronger cold front 
is expected to be just to its north. This front will quickly push 
southward reaching from near 31N57W to central Florida by this 
evening, and from near 28N55W to the southeastern waters by Fri 
evening with its southern portion weakening through late Sat and 
while the rest of the front moves well to the E of 55W. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds and large N swell are expected to follow in
behind the front on Fri mainly E of about 70W. On Mon, these 
winds will be affecting the northeast part of the area, however, 
rough seas are expected to cover a good portion of the eastern 
half of the area. 

$$
ERA