094 
AXNT20 KNHC 152252
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Apr 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2240 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03N16W. The 
ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 01N34W to near 02S44W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted within 120 nm N of the monsoon/ITCZ.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad ridge extending from a pair of highs located over Oklahoma 
dominates the basin. Over the NE Gulf, a cold front continues to
sink and as of 21 UTC it extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to
south-central Louisiana where it transitions to a stationary front
inland. Moderate NW winds follow this front. In the Bay of
Campeche, a surface trough supports moderate NE winds, except for
locally fresh to strong off the W Yucatan coast. Seas are slight
basin-wide.

For the forecast, a dry cold front will move across the eastern 
Gulf tonight through Wed, followed by moderate to fresh northeast 
winds and mostly slight seas. High pressure in its wake will build
southward across the basin through Thu. The high pressure will 
then shift east-southeastward through the weekend as pressures 
lower over Texas. The resultant gradient will lead to fresh to 
strong southeast winds and building seas across most of the basin 
from late Fri through Sat night. Conditions diminish Sun. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The pressure gradient between high pressure to the SE of Bermuda,
surface ridging over the NW Caribbean and the Colombian Low 
sustains moderate to fresh E winds across much of the basin, with 
locally strong winds offshore NW Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Rough seas in the 8-11 ft range are analyzed over the
SW Caribbean between 74W and 80W while moderate seas prevails 
across the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force winds winds offshore 
Colombia will continue through early Wed, then diminish to fresh 
to strong speeds afterward, except possibly pulse to near gale 
force Sat night. Seas are currently peaking to 13 ft over these 
same waters, but will slowly subside through Wed. Elsewhere, fresh
to strong northeast to east winds will continue in the lee of 
Cuba, the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Hispaniola today as 
a high pressure center shifts eastward across the western 
Atlantic. Otherwise, fresh to strong northeast to east winds in 
the south-central Caribbean will continue through the forecast 
period. Rough seas can be expected with the strongest winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N47W to 26N55W, where it becomes
stationary to the eastern part of Hispaniola, followed by high 
pressure. The gradient between the high pressure and the cold 
front is allowing for fresh to strong southwest to west winds to 
exist west of the cold front north of about 29N. Scattered 
showers are noted in the vicinity of the front N of 28N. Moderate
seas are observed in this region as well, except ahead of the
front to 50W and N of 28N where seas are rough to 9 ft in NW
swell. 

The remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is
dominated by ridging stemming from a pair of highs located to the
south of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and
lower pressures in the tropics sustain moderate to locally fresh 
E to NE winds and moderate seas across the vast majority of the 
basin. Otherwise, a pocket of moderate to fresh SW winds is 
observed from the NE Florida coast out to about 63W and N of 29N,
driven by the pressure gradient betwen a 1021 mb high near 29N62W
and lower pressure associated with an approaching cold front. 
Moderate seas to 7 ft are present in this region.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken as its 
continues eastward through Wed. Another cold front is expected to 
move offshore the southeastern U.S. this evening, reach from near
31N75W to South Florida late tonight, from near 31N72W to west-
central Cuba by early Wed afternoon, from near 31N65W to central 
Cuba early Thu, from near 31N62W to 26N67W and stationary to 
Hispaniola late Thu. The cold front portion will shift east of 55W
late Fri, followed by strong high pressure. The resultant 
gradient is expected to lead to fresh to strong northeast winds 
south of about 26N, including near and in the Windward Passage and
Straits of Florida beginning late Fri. Seas with these winds will
build east of the Bahamas. Conditions may improve slightly on Sun
and Sun night. 

$$
Ramos