000
AXNT20 KNHC 070928
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Apr 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Central Atlantic Swell Event: Earlier altimeter satellite data 
and Sofar buoy observations confirm very large swell continues to 
move across the central Atlantic toward the tropical waters. The 
large well is following a cold front currently reaching from a 
storm center northwest of the Azores to 31N23W to 21N45W to 
25N63W. Wave heights up to 24 ft are observed near 31N40W, with 
higher values noted farther north. Wave heights in excess of 12 ft
are evident north of 23N between 25W and 55W, with wave periods 
of 12 to 15 seconds. The leading edge of 12 ft seas will likely 
reach as far south as 18N by tonight, east of 50W. The swell will 
decay below 12 ft through Tue night across the central Atlantic, 
but wave heights in excess of 12 ft will persist over the eastern 
Atlantic in a combination of NW swell and short period waves due 
to the weakening low pressure center moving toward the Canary 
Islands.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong late-season cold front
extends from Pensacola, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche 
near Puerto Dos Bocas, Mexico this morning. An evening 
scatterometer satellite data pass confirmed near-gale force 
northwest to north winds west of the front. Both altimeter 
satellite data passes and buoy observations indicate seas of 8 to 
12 ft with these winds, with higher seas of 12 to 16 ft over the 
southwest Gulf. Gale-force winds will pulse off of Veracruz this 
morning before diminishing.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center, at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast 
of Senegal near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 00N25W, 
where it transitions to the ITCZ and extends to near the coast of
Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 
00N to 03N between 15W and 20W, and within 60 nm either side of
the ITCZ between 25W and 35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of America. 
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. 

A cold front currently reaches from Pensacola, Florida to the 
central Bay of Campeche near Puerto Dos Bocas, Mexico. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active along the front north of 26N,
and farther south off the northwest coast of the Yucatan 
Peninsula. Fresh to strong NW winds follow the front, with near- 
gale force winds likely off the coast Veracruz. Wave heights are 8
to 12 ft west of the front. In addition, fresh to strong SE winds
and seas to 8 ft are evident east of the front to the north of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
are noted elsewhere east of the front. 

For the forecast, the front will move slowly
eastward, reaching near Marco Island, Florida to the northeast 
Yucatan Peninsula Tue morning, then exit to the southeast of the 
basin by Tue evening. Strong northerly winds and rough seas will 
follow the front across most of the Gulf through Mon evening, 
before winds and seas diminish from west to east through Tue 
night. Behind the front, high pressure will settle across the 
northern Gulf Tue night through Thu to produce gentle breezes and 
slight seas in all but the southeast Gulf, where moderate NW swell
will persist into early Wed. Looking ahead, another weak front may
move into the northern Gulf late Thu into Fri. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Strong trades persist off Colombia and the Gulf of Honduras. 
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are evident elsewhere, except for 
gentle breezes along the southern coast of Cuba, and from Panama 
to Nicaragua. Wave heights are 7 to 10 ft over the southwest 
Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 5 to 7 ft 
elsewhere. A few streamer-related showers and thunderstorms are 
noted west of Jamaica, but no significant thunderstorm activity is
noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the strong trade winds continuing across the 
south central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras will begin to 
diminish today as high pressure north of the area begins to shift 
eastward. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across all but 
northwest portions of the basin through Thu as high pressure moves
into the central Atlantic. A cold front is expected to reach the 
northwestern Caribbean Tue, and move slowly eastward, reaching 
from central Cuba to northeast Honduras Thu before stalling and 
dissipating. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds and rough 
seas will follow behind the front across the Yucatan Channel 
through Wed night then diminish. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Large swell is impacting the central Atlantic. Please refer to 
the Special Features section for more details.

In addition to the gale-force winds associated to the cold front
described in the Special Features section, fresh to strong winds
and rough seas are noted near the front covering the area north 
of 24N between 20W and 45W. Farther west, a 1022 mb high center 
is analyzed east of Bermuda near 30N57W. This pattern is supporting
fresh winds near the approaches of the Windward Passage, and fresh
to locally strong S winds off the coast of northeast Florida. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are evident over the 
tropical Atlantic along with 6 to 8 ft seas. Farther east, fresh 
north winds and rough seas are noted off Senegal. Gentle to 
moderate breezes are noted elsewhere along with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure near Bermuda will
shift eastward through mid- week, allowing an approaching cold 
front to move off the northeast Florida coast tonight into Tue. 
The front will generally stall from Bermuda to central Cuba by Wed
followed by fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas
north of 29N, with NE winds possibly reaching minimal gale force 
Wed north or northeast of the northern Bahamas.

$$
Christensen