842 
AXNT20 KNHC 090402
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Apr 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from low
pressure off the Canadian Maritimes to the northern Bahamas to
western Cuba. 1012 mb low pressure is forming along the front near
the northern Bahamas, associated with favorable jet dynamics
aloft. The tight gradient between the low pressure and higher 
pressure north of the area will support strong to near-gale force 
northeast winds with building seas north of 29N between 70W and 
80W tonight into Wed night, with winds reaching gale-force Wed 
morning through Wed evening along with wave heights building to 15
ft. Winds and wave heights will diminish Wed night through Thu as
the low pressure dissipates. 

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large N swell has been
moving through the central and eastern North Atlantic over the
past several days. Recent altimeter satellite passes confirm that
swell is largely subsiding below 12 ft east of 40W, and is now
relegated to an area between the Azores Islands and the Canary
Islands north of 26N between 20W and 40W. These wave heights are
in a mix of NW swell and shorter-period seas attributed strong to
gale force winds on the west side of 1005 mb low pressure near 
34N26W, moving southeastward toward the Canary Islands. Wave
heights in excess of 12 ft will persist through early Thu to the
southwest of the low pressure, then subside as the low weakens. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center, at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 00N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03N44W. Scattered moderate convection is
active within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 35W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

1021 mb high pressure is centered over the northwest Gulf off the
coast of Texas near 28N94W. A weak, poorly-defined trough extends
from the Florida Panhandle near For Walton Beach toward the south
of the high pressure. A secondary high pressure area is farther
south off Tampico, Mexico near 22N96W. The high pressure is
building in the wake of a frontal boundary that is now stalled to
the southeast of the basin. The thunderstorm activity along the
front has now exited to the southeast of the Gulf, although a few
thunderstorms are still active near the front over the western
Straits of Florida. Skies are clearing from northwest to southeast
across the Gulf behind the front. Moderate to fresh N winds and 5
to 7 ft seas are noted over the eastern and central Gulf, with
gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas over the western
Gulf. 

For the forecast, conditions will improve tonight as high 
pressure builds south into the basin. Tranquil weather should 
prevail tomorrow afternoon through Fri morning. A second, 
relatively weak, cold front will move through the Gulf Thu night 
through Fri. Fresh NW to N winds will follow this front over the 
NE Gulf Fri night into Sat. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A frontal boundary is starting to stall from western Cuba to
eastern Honduras. A few thunderstorms are noted along the front. Fresh
to strong N winds and 5 to 8 ft seas follow the front across the 
Yucatan Channel into the far northwestern Gulf, with moderate to 
fresh winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of the 
front. Farther south, moderate to fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft seas 
are noted across the Caribbean, with strong winds and seas to 7 ft
pulsing off the coast of Colombia. Gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft 
seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the cold front will drift across the northwest
Caribbean through tomorrow, then will gradually dissipate from
eastern Cuba to the Honduras-Nicaragua border Thu. Fresh to 
strong NW to N winds will follow the front across the Yucatan 
Channel and far northwestern Caribbean through early tomorrow. 
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will prevail in the south-
central Caribbean into the weekend, with locally strong winds 
pulsing off Colombia tonight. Farther east, large N swell will 
continue to impact Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles 
through Thu. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N winds will follow 
the remnants of the front off the coast of Nicaragua late Fri into
Sun. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details 
regarding the upcoming gale warning northeast of the northern 
Bahamas, and the large swell event in the central Atlantic.

A frontal boundary is starting to stall from west of Bermuda to
the northern Bahamas to western Cuba this evening. Gentle N
breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted west of the front.025 mb 
high pressure is over the central Atlantic near 29N49W.Gentle to 
moderate anti-cyclonic flow is noted north of 20N and west of 50W,
along the ridge axis that extends from the high pressure to the 
central Bahamas. Seas in this area are 5 to 7 ft in NE swell. Farther
east, cold front extends from a 1005 mb gale center near 35N25W 
to just east of the high pressure near 29N40W. A dissipating front
is farther east, reaching from the Canary Islands to 17N40W. 
North of 20N and east of 50W, gentle to moderate northerly 
breezes are evident with 7 to 11 ft N swell, except higher east of
the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds are present 
across the tropical Atlantic, with 8 to 11 ft wave heights in a 
mix of N swell and shorter period seas due to the trade winds. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary
extends from just west of Bermuda to the Florida Straits this 
evening. Along and just ahead of the front, scattered strong 
thunderstorms are producing locally strong to near gale force 
winds. This front will move east tomorrow, then gradually stall as
low pressure forms along it just northeast of the Bahamas. NE 
winds will develop north of the Bahamas tonight and increase to 
gale force north of 29N between 74W-76W tomorrow. As the low moves
away from the area and weakens Thu, conditions will improve. 
Looking ahead, a weaker cold front will move off the coast of 
Florida late Fri, followed by moderate to fresh NW winds.

$$
Christensen