000
AXNT20 KNHC 071011
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Feb 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge centered north of the area
will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the 
south- central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale-force each 
night offshore of Colombia through the weekend. Peak seas with 
these winds are expected to be at or near 12 ft.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further 
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 05N10W to 03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to 00N39W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 03N between 
16W and 39W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic to the
northern Gulf. A trough is analyzed just W of the Yucatan 
Peninsula. Gentle to moderate E winds are present in the southern
Gulf with light S winds in the north. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, except
locally 4 ft in the Yucatan Channel and the Straits of Florida. No
significant convection is evident. Some fog is restricting
visibility within about 90 nm of the northern Gulf coast. 

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds are expected each afternoon
and evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula through the middle 
of next week. Otherwise, high pressure will support gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas into the middle of next
week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Feature Section for details on a Gale Warning off
the coast of Colombia. 

A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the area is 
supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas across 
the central and southwest Caribbean and the Windward Passage. 
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhere along with 
moderate seas. No significant convection is present.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure
over the western Atlantic and low pressure over northwestern 
Colombia will support pulsing winds to gale force each night and 
early morning offshore of Colombia through next week. Rough seas 
are expected near and to the west of the strongest winds. Fresh E 
to NE trade winds and rough seas are expected across the remainder
southwestern and central Caribbean through the middle of next 
week, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Windward 
Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and downwind of Hispaniola. 
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail across the 
remainder of the basin. East swell will bring rough seas near the 
Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the eastern 
Caribbean Sea through early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from 1032 mb high pressure centered near
41N50W to the Florida Peninsula. Farther east, a surface trough 
reaches from 31N38W to 28N50W. This pattern is supporting moderate
to fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas south of 30N between 50W and
65W, and gentle breezes with 5 to 6 ft elsewhere north of 24N and
west of 71W. Fresh trades and 7 to 9 ft are noted south of 25N 
over the tropical Atlantic. No significant convection is
occurring.

For the forecast W of 55W, mainly fresh trade winds will prevail 
south of 25N through Tue night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
winds will prevail into early next week. East swell will bring 
rough seas NE of the Leeward Islands and NE of Puerto Rico through
Sun. 


$$
Konarik