000
AXNT20 KNHC 120553
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Mar 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0525 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic
near 31N64W to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers to isolated strong
convection are evident ahead of the front, especially north of 23N
and west of 55W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured
fresh to gale-force southerly winds ahead of the front to 50W and
north of 20N. Fresh to gale-force NW-W winds are noted behind the
front to 77W and north of 22N. These winds are producing rough to
very rough seas, peaking near 17 ft near 28N72W. The front is 
expected to reach from 31N58W to the Windward Passage by Wed 
morning, and from 31N51W to NE Dominican Republic by Thu morning. 
The southern portion of the front will then become stationary near
the coastal waters of Puerto Rico by Fri morning then dissipate. 
Winds behind the front will diminish below gale force tonight 
while gales ahead of the front will persist through Wed night. 
Large NW to W swell behind the front is producing a significant 
area of seas 12 ft and greater N of 25N between the front and 77W 
tonight that will shift eastward through Wed night. Winds and seas
will diminish from west to east through late week as high 
pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the 
front. Due to persistent large swell, the 12 to 16 ft seas are 
expected to persist west of 55W into early Fri. 

Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFFAT2.shmtl 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more 
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near
10N14W and continues southwestward to 02N19W. The ITCZ extends 
from 02N19W to 01S33W and to 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed south of 04N and between 15W and 45W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure dominates the basin and maintains fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate
seas are evident west of 93W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
slight seas are found off western Yucatan. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a 1018 mb high pressure centered over the N central  
Gulf will slide eastward across the northern Gulf through Wed 
night then into the W Atlantic Thu through Fri. Moderate to fresh
southerly return flow will set up over the western Gulf Wed, then 
increase to fresh to strong speeds across most of the basin Fri 
and Fri night, ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front 
will move into the NW Gulf early Sat, and weaken from near SE 
Louisiana to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Sat evening. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from SE Cuba to northern Honduras,
supporting isolated, shallow showers near the boundary. High
pressure over the central Atlantic supports fresh to strong
easterly trade winds across the south-central Caribbean waters,
along with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are noted
in the SE Caribbean and lee of Cuba. Seas in these waters are
slight to moderate ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle and slight to 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will gradually become 
W to E aligned from central Hispaniola to northern Belize by Wed 
night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 
moderate seas will prevail N of the front through Wed morning. 
Otherwise, weak high pressure N of the area will support moderate 
to fresh NE to E trade winds offshore of northwestern Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela most of the week. Winds there will pulse
to fresh to strong speeds at night during the upcoming weekend. 
Fresh to strong SE to S winds will develop across the Gulf of 
Honduras and NW Caribbean Fri night through Sat as strong high 
pressure builds across the western Atlantic. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale 
Warning in the SW North Atlantic.

The SW North Atlantic is dominated by a strong cold front moving
across its waters and the impacts associated with this boundary
are described in the Special Features section. Farther east, a
cold front enters the basin near 31N23W to 27N33W, followed by a
stationary front to 23N52W. A few showers are noted near this
boundary. Fresh to strong W-NW winds are present north of 29N and
between 23W and 40W, along with rough seas. The remainder of the
tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical
ridge that sustain moderate to fresh NE-E winds south of 21N. Seas
in the area described are 6-9 ft, with the highest seas occurring
between the Cabo Verde Islands and the African mainland.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front continues to move E-SE
across the western Atlantic tonight, and extends from near 31N64W
to extreme eastern Cuba. Gale force SW winds, rough seas, and 
strong thunderstorms continue along the front N of 25N, while 
strong to gale-force NW to W winds and very rough seas prevail 
behind front N of 25N. The front is expected to reach from 31N58W 
to the Windward Passage by Wed morning, and from 31N51W to NE 
Dominican Republic by Thu morning. The southern portion of the 
front will then become stationary near the coastal waters of 
Puerto Rico by Fri morning then dissipate. Winds behind the front 
will diminish below gale force tonight while gales ahead of the 
front will persist through Wed night. Large NW to W swell behind 
the front is producing a significant area of seas 12 ft and 
greater N of 25N between the front and 77W tonight that will shift
eastward through Wed night. Winds and seas will diminish from 
west to east through late week as high pressure builds over the 
western Atlantic in the wake of the front. 

$$
Delgado