000
AXNT20 KNHC 152231
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC SUN Mar 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Atlc Gale Warning: A low pres system is expected to develop in 
the central Atlantic beginning on Sun night. As the system 
intensifies, gale-force winds are expected on Mon across the 
northern semicircle of the low, mainly N of 25N between 45W and 
55W. Rough to very rough seas are expected with these winds. The 
low will move NW through mid-week while weakening.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 05N15W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 00N21W and then to 04N38W.
Scattered moderate convection is active from 04S to 00N between
08W to 22W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front reaches from southeast Louisiana to Poza Rica,
Mexico. Current buoy and platform observations, along with 
earlier scatterometer satellite data confirm strong to near-gale
force southerly winds ahead of the front across the central 
Gulf. Combined seas are estimated to be 8 to 12 ft across the
central Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are
noted elsewhere. Thunderstorms ahead of the front moving through
the lower Mississippi Valley do not extend into the Gulf. 

For the forecast, the front will move southeast and reach
from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by Sun morning,
and move E of the Gulf Sun night. Southerly winds will increase 
to fresh to strong speeds off Veracruz Sun. Northerly winds behind
the front will increase to fresh to strong speeds from Sun night 
though Mon night. Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over 
the basin Mon through mid week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends across the Bahamas and Cuba into the NW Caribbean
while low pressure dominates most of the Gulf of America. This 
pattern is allowing for fresh to locally strong E to SE winds 
over the Gulf of Honduras and the NW Caribbean, with similar wind
speeds from the NE and E are noted offshore Colombia. Moderate to
fresh NE winds are observed per scatterometer data in the 
Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trade winds dominate the 
remainder of the basin. Seas are 3 to 6 ft with the strongest 
winds, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the high pressure over the northwest Atlantic 
will build while it shifts to the southeast to the central 
Atlantic waters. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at 
night offshore Colombia through early next week. Moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Windward Passage and 
south of the Dominican Republic through the weekend. Fresh to 
strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will expand to the 
remaining northwest Caribbean ahead of a cold front forecast to 
move across the Yucatan Channel into the northwest basin Mon 
morning. Rough seas are expected with the strong winds preceding 
the front. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and moderate 
seas will be associated with the passage of the front, which is 
forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Tue 
morning, from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua Tue evening 
before dissipating late Wed. By Thu winds will pulse to fresh to 
strong speeds of the coast off Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the central Atlantic.

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast area near 31N26W and 
continues southwestward to near 25N35W, where it transitions 
into a stationary frontal boundary that extends to 20N60W.
Farther north, 1029 mb high pressure centered near 37N50W 
dominates the western Atlantic, supporting strong NE to E winds
and roughs seas north of the front to 28N between 55W and 65W. A
short wave trough in the mid/upper levels is interacting with 
the frontal boundary to support scattered showers and 
thunderstorms from 22N to 28N between 45W and 60W. Fresh NE to E
winds and large northerly swell of 8 to 13 ft is noted elsewhere
north of the front. Moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft are noted
elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, developing low pressure along the 
stationary front will support gale- force winds east of 60W by 
Sun night. These gale-force winds will likely last through Mon 
night then diminishing to fresh to strong winds through Tue 
morning. This pattern will also support rough to very seas east 
of 70W through mid week. Farther west, a strong cold front will 
push off the SE United States coast Sun late night preceded and 
followed by fresh to near-gale force winds and rough seas. The 
front will reach from 31N68W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern 
Cuba Tue morning, and from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed morning. 

$$
Christensen