000
AXNT20 KNHC 120823
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jan 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0820 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N62W to 
23N80W. Gale force winds are noted N of 29N and east of the front
to 54W, where rough to very rough seas prevail. The front will 
shift eastward today, with gale force winds within 60 nm east of 
the front and N of 28N. Winds will diminish below gale force 
tonight. 

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Two sets of large long-period 
northwest swell are impacting the discussion waters, producing 
rough to very rough seas. Seas 12 ft or greater associated to the
first swell cover the waters N of a line from 17N52W to 30N30W, 
while seas 12 ft or greater associated to the other swell cover
the waters N of 27N between 52W and 73W. Seas are now peaking 
near 18 ft north of 30N between 65W and 70W. Seas associated to
the first swell will subside below 12 ft today, while the second
swell spreads SE through the middle of the week before subsiding.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 05N10W to
04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to 01N32W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 08N between 12W and
19W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh
winds are over the far western Gulf, with moderate winds N and W
of the Yucatan peninsula. Light to gentle anticyclonic wind flow
prevails over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are in the 4-7 ft
range over the waters SE of a line from central Florida to
Tampico, Mexico, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a cold front will move into the Gulf early this
week followed by strong winds and rough seas, possibly reaching 
near- gale off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico Mon night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean,
with gentle to moderate winds over the north central Caribbean and
eastern Caribbean. Seas over these waters are in the 4-7 ft 
range. Gentle winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail over the western
Caribbean.

For the forecast, large long- period northerly swell moving 
through the Atlantic passages into the northeast Caribbean and the
Atlantic waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands will 
subside late tonight through early Mon. Meanwhile, high pressure 
building across the western Atlantic will maintain moderate to 
fresh trade winds over the eastern and south- central Caribbean, 
with strong winds pulsing off Colombia through the middle of next 
week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on a gale and a 
significant swell in the ATLC waters.

A cold front extends from 31N62W to 23N80W. Aside from the area of
gale force winds, fresh to near gale force winds are over the
waters N of a line from 30N72W to 25N63W to 30N48W. Farther east,
another cold front extends from 31N31W to 16N58W, with little
impact on winds. Aside from the winds described above, mainly 
light to gentle winds are west of the front; with light to gentle
winds within 60 nm east of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are
noted elsewhere. Aside from the area of 12 ft seas discussed in
the Special Features section, seas 8 ft or greater are over the
waters W of a line from 31N24W to 10N56W. The exception is within
120 nm NE of the central and southern Bahamas where seas of 5-7 ft
prevail. Otherwise, seas are in the 6-7 ft range. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will reach from 31N55W to 
the Straits of Florida today, before stalling and dissipating 
along roughly 21N late tonight into Mon. The gale force winds and 
rough seas will impact the waters north of 28N in the vicinity of 
the front today. These winds and seas will decrease as high 
pressure builds over the basin into Mon. A reinforcing front will 
move into the waters off northeast Florida Tue, and reach from 
Bermuda to South Florida Wed. 

$$
AL