359 
AXNT20 KNHC 140955
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Mar 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0945 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea, Africa near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 00N21W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to below the Equator to near the
coast of Brazil. Numerous clusters of strong convection are 
over the coastal waters of Africa mainly E of 15W. Scattered 
moderate convection is S of 02N and W of 20W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak Atlantic ridging stretches westward to the eastern Gulf. A 
weak trough is over the southeastern Gulf extending from near 
25N81W to 24N82W. No significant convection is occurring with the
trough. Otherwise, the gradient in place is allowing for gentle 
to moderate southerly winds over the basin, except for moderate 
to fresh northeast to east winds near the northern Yucatan 
Peninsula. Seas are in the range of 1-3 ft, except for 2-4 ft in 
NW Gulf. 

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to slide E today 
as low pressure continue to build over the remainder basin ahead 
of the next front. Southerly moderate to fresh winds will expand 
across the remaining basin today, then increase to strong by 
tonight ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the NW 
Gulf by Sat morning, then reach from the Florida Panhandle to the 
Bay of Campeche by Sun morning, and move E of the Gulf Mon 
morning. Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over the 
northern basin Mon night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening frontal boundary extends from the central Atlantic
southwestward to over the British Virgin Islands. A weak pressure
pattern in place is allowing for gentle to moderate trade winds 
for most locations of the basin, except for fresh to strong 
northeast trade winds offshore Colombia and Venezuela, and mostly 
fresh trade winds elsewhere south of 16N between 67W and 78W. Seas
range from 4-7 ft over the south-central Caribbean to lower seas 
of 2-4 ft elsewhere. No significant convection is occurring 
across the basin. 

For the forecast, the tail of the stationary front will start 
lifting through the weekend while dissipating. High pressure NE of
the Bahamas will shift slowly NE through Sun night to support 
pulsing fresh to strong trades off NW Colombia, and moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds in the Windward Passage and south of the 
Dominican Republic. Winds will also pulse off eastern Honduras, 
becoming fresh to strong SE to S winds Fri night through early 
Sun. Rough seas are expected with strongest winds. A cold front 
will approach the Yucatan Channel Mon morning, with increasing 
winds and seas behind it. The front is expected to reach from 
eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Tue morning, and from the Windward 
Passage to NE Nicaragua Tue evening. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic cold front is analyzed from near 31N42W 
southwestward to 22N57W, where it transitions into a stationary 
frontal boundary to the British Virgin Islands. Scattered showers
are noted along the cold front. Weak high pressure is west of the
front. Fresh to strong southwest winds are north of 27N between 
35W and 53W. Seas with these winds are 8-14 ft. Fresh northwest to
north winds are west of the front to near 64W along with seas of 
8-12 ft in west to northwest swell. Lower seas of 3 ft or less are
in the vicinity of the Bahamas. 

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1020 mb high center is analyzed at 
28N31W. This feature covers the eastern Atlantic north of 11N and
east of the above described cold front. Fresh to strong northwest
to north winds are north of 26N and east of 21W. Seas with these 
winds are 8-12 ft in northwest swell. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds are elsewhere north of 19N and east of 25N, with seas of 
7-9 ft in northwest swell. Elsewhere, northeast to east trade 
winds are of gentle to moderate speeds. Seas are observed to be 
generally 4-6 ft with these winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and 
rough to very rough seas are ongoing W of the front between 38W 
and 60W. The tail end of the front will lift N through the weekend
while weakening. Large NW to W swell behind the front will shift 
E through today. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east 
through Fri as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in 
the wake of the front. Winds are forecast to reach fresh to strong
speeds again north of 22N and E of the Bahamas this weekend as 
the pressure gradient tightens between the remnants of the front 
and strong high pressure to the north. These winds will support 
building rough seas across E of the Bahamas. Looking ahead, a 
strong cold front will push off the SE United States coast early 
Mon preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds. The front will
reach from 31N70W to the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Tue
morning.  

$$
ERA