000
AXNT20 KNHC 050422
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Feb 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0421 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the area will
continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-
central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale-force each night 
offshore of Colombia through the remainder of the week. Peak seas
with these winds are expected to be at or near 12 ft.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further 
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N10W and continues 
southwestward to 04N13W. The ITCZ extends from 03N13W, and 
continues to 01S44W. Scattered moderate convection is evident 
from 00N to 05N between 15W and 27W and between 33W and 42W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure is centered south of Pensacola, Florida
near 29N86W. A weak trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula. This 
pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds from the 
Straits of Florida to the northern Yucatan Peninsula, with 3 to 
4 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail, with seas 1 to 3 
ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through 
the forecast period, supporting gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are 
forecast at night north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the Bay 
of Campeche as a surface trough develops over the Peninsula and 
moves westward towards Tampico and Veracruz diurnally.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge north of the area is supporting fresh
to strong trade winds across mainly the south-central Caribbean, 
and fresh to strong NE winds the central part of the basin and 
the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail 
elsewhere. Combined seas are 7 to 10 ft over the southwest 
Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. A few fast moving showers 
are embedded in the trade wind flow over the western Caribbean, 
but otherwise no significant showers or thunderstorms are noted 
at this time across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, Gale force winds will pulse each night over 
the SW Caribbean through Sun night. Fresh to strong NE to E 
winds will also continue through the weekend in the central and 
southwest Caribbean, through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf 
of Venezuela, and downwind of Hispaniola and Cuba. East swell 
will support moderate to locally rough seas near the Lesser 
Antilles as well as the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean 
through tonight. Otherwise, large E swell will resume across the 
Leeward Islands offshore zones Thu into the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge is supporting mostly gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft west 
of 55W, except for moderate winds and seas to 7 ft south of 22N. 
Farther east, a surface trough extends over the central Atlantic 
from 31N46W to 22N58W, and 1031 mb high pressure is centered 
near 34N23W. Fresh to strong trade winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are 
noted south of the high pressure from 11N to 23N, east of 35W 
and near the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, this pattern is 
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft across 
the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will support 
generally moderate or weaker winds across the offshore waters 
for the next several days, except for fresh to strong NE winds 
across the approach to the Windward Passage. Otherwise, rough 
seas in E swell should develop across the offshore waters east 
of 70W and south of 24N late Thu through the weekend.

$$
KRV