686 
AXNT20 KNHC 161657
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Apr 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France Gale Warning: Meteo-France forecasts gale-force N to
NE winds offshore Agadir now through 17/00 UTC. Rough to very 
rough seas will likely accompany these winds. For more details, 
refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their 
website https://wwwmiws.wmo.int.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to
04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 01S46W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring south of 05N and east of 20W, 
and S of 04N between 32W and 45W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from 27N82W to 28N92W. Recent buoy and
scatterometer data show moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds 
north of the front in the northeastern Gulf of America. Otherwise,
moderate E to SE winds prevail across much of the Gulf away from
the front, along with slight seas across the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh north to northeast 
winds will occur across the northeastern Gulf of America this 
morning as a cold front moves southward. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh 
to strong northeast winds are expected each afternoon and night 
offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of 
Campeche as a trough develops each day and migrates westward. 
Otherwise, moderate to fresh southeast winds will develop by early
Thu west of 90W as low pressure deepens in the Plains. Fresh to 
locally strong southeast winds will expand in coverage by Fri 
across much of the basin, including through the Straits of Florida
and Yucatan Channel, and winds will pulse through early Sun. 
Locally rough seas will accompany these winds. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A surface trough has been analyzed from northern Haiti 
southwestward through the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring S of 18N and W of 83W to the
coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize. Elsewhere, a 1008 mb 
low over northwestern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE 
winds offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in
this area are analyzed at 7-9 ft. Otherwise, moderate to fresh 
trade winds and moderate seas prevail in the remainder of the 
central and eastern Caribbean, with gentle to locally moderate 
winds and slight seas in the northwestern basin.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force northeast winds and 
rough seas are expected offshore of Colombia each night and 
morning through this weekend. In the Gulf of Venezuela, pulsing 
strong winds will occur through this weekend. Otherwise, moderate 
to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will prevail over the basin
through Thu. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong northeast 
winds are expected to develop Thu night into Fri over the 
northwestern and central portions of the sea, including in the 
Windward passage, as a tightening pressure gradient develops 
between the Colombian low and intensifying western Atlantic high 
pressure. Widespread fresh to strong winds and locally rough seas 
are anticipated Fri night into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on gale-
force winds offshore of Agadir and rough to very rough seas near
the Canary Islands.

A stationary front has been analyzed from 31N47W southwestward to
northern Hispaniola. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are observed between the front and 28N between 57W and 72W. 
Prevailing NW swell behind this front is producing rough seas of 8
to 10 ft north of 28N and east of 52W. Farther west, a cold front
extends from 31N72W into SE Florida. Scattered showers are
occurring along the front. Recent scatterometer data indicate 
moderate to fresh SW winds ahead of the front out to about 70W and
N of 27N along with moderate seas. Behind the front, moderate to 
fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are observed.

The remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is 
dominated by a 1027 high pressure system centered near 33N21W. 
The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in 
the tropics support moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and 
moderate seas across the vast majority of the basin, especially 
west of 30W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found
N of 15N and E of 30W. Another corridor of fresh to locally
strong NE winds is observed from 03N to 14N between 30W and 55W,
with seas of 6-9 ft in these waters. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, A cold front extending from 31N72W 
to inland Florida near Fort Pierce will reach from near 31N65W to 
the central Bahamas and Straits of Florida early Thu and from near
31N61W to the central Bahamas by Thu evening. The front will then
become stationary over the eastern part of the area during the 
upcoming weekend as a large area of high pressure builds in behind
it, with the parent high center to be located near 31N72W. A 
tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure and the 
front is expected to develop fresh to strong northeast to east 
winds behind the front south of about 26N starting Fri. These 
winds will expand in coverage going into the weekend. Seas east 
and northeast of the Bahamas will become rough beginning Fri 
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will generally remain 
south of 20N through this weekend. 

$$ 
Adams