000
AXNT20 KNHC 141755
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Mar 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Sierra Leone, Africa near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 
01N19W. The ITCZ remains south of the Equator. Scattered strong 
convection is occurring from the Equator to 07N between the west 
coast of Africa and 28W, with another cluster of scattered
moderate convection occurring from the Equator to 02N between 37W
and 46W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak Atlantic ridging is exiting the Gulf as low pressure steadily
builds into the basin. The pressure gradient in place is allowing
for gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the basin, except for 
moderate to fresh S to SE winds along and near the coasts of far 
NE Mexico and Deep South Texas. Seas are generally 1-4 ft across 
the basin, locally up to 5 ft along the Texas coast.

For the forecast, low pressure continues to build across the 
basin ahead of the next front. Southerly moderate to fresh winds 
will expand across the remaining basin today, then increase to 
strong speeds tonight through Sat ahead of a cold front. The front
will move into the NW Gulf by Sat morning, then reach from the 
Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by Sun morning, and move 
E of the Gulf Mon morning. Near gale force southerly winds will 
likely develop ahead of the front Sat and off Veracruz Sun. 
Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over the basin Mon 
through mid week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure pattern in place is allowing for gentle to 
moderate trade winds for most locations of the basin, except for 
moderate to fresh northeast trade winds offshore Colombia and 
Venezuela. Seas are 1-4 ft across much of the basin, with areas 
of 4-6 ft seas occurring offshore NW Colombia and in the Gulf of 
Honduras.

For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Atlantic will build 
while it shifts SE to the central Atlantic waters. The pressure 
gradient between the associated ridge and lower pressure over NW 
Colombia will maintain fresh to strong winds at night offshore 
Colombia through Tue. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are also 
expected in the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican 
Republic Sat through Sun. Fresh SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras 
will reach strong speeds tonight and expand to the remaining NW 
Caribbean W of 82W ahead of a cold front forecast to move across 
the Yucatan Channel into the NW basin Mon morning. Rough seas are 
expected with the strong winds preceding the arrival of the front.
Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and mainly moderate seas 
will be associated with the passage of the front, which is 
forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Tue morning,
and from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua Tue evening. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic cold front is analyzed from near 31N37W 
southwestward to 21N56W, where it transitions into a stationary 
frontal boundary that extends to near 19N63W. Scattered showers 
are noted along the cold front. Weak high pressure is west of the 
front. Fresh to strong southwest winds are ahead of the front, 
north of 26N between 35W and the cold front. Seas with these 
winds are 6-12 ft. Fresh north to northeast winds are west of the
front to near 65W along with seas of 6-10 ft in west to northwest
swell. Seas of 3-6 ft are N of the Lesser Antilles and E of the 
Bahamas to about 65W, with seas near the Bahamas around 1-3 ft.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1020 mb high center is analyzed at 
26N29W, extending a weak ridge across much of the remaining
subtropical and tropical Atlantic. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds
and seas of 6-10 ft prevail across much of the basin, except for
the Cabo Verde Islands where seas are 4-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the tail of a cold front stalls 
from 21N55W to 19N63W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas 
to 10 ft are ongoing N of the front between 55W and 65W. The tail 
end of the front will lift N through the weekend while weakening. 
High pressure over the NW Atlantic will build while it shifts SE 
to the central Atlantic waters through early next week. The 
pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the remnants of
the aforementioned front will lead to the development of fresh to
strong winds north of 22N and E of the Bahamas this weekend. 
These winds will support building rough seas across E of the 
Bahamas. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will push off the SE 
United States coast early Mon preceded and followed by fresh to 
near gale force winds. The front will reach from 31N68W to the 
Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba Tue morning, and from Bermuda to
the Mona Passage Tue night. 

$$
Adams