000
AXNT20 KNHC 130550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jun 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the SE Gulf of Mexico, in South Florida, and in
the western Atlantic Ocean:

Numerous strong rainshowers are in the Straits of Florida between
Andros Island in the Bahamas and 82W in the Gulf of Mexico. This
area includes: south Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba between 
78W and 82W. Some fresh to strong winds in the areas of
precipitation are from 26N southward from 83W eastward. Gentle
winds are in the rest of the area that is from 90W eastward.
Moderate anticyclonic wind flow is from 90W westward. Slight seas
are everywhere. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is 
within 240 nm on either side of the line that is from the Florida 
Straits to 31N72W. Scattered strong is in the Caribbean Sea from 
18N to 21N between 79W and 80W. A surface trough is along 31N78W, 
to a 1010 Florida 28.5N81W low pressure center, to the north 
central Yucatan Peninsula. Numerous strong rainshowers cover the 
Yucatan Peninsula. Other rainshowers are in the remainder of the 
area that is from 26N southward from 88W eastward. Broken to 
overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate 
rainshowers are from 24N northward between 60W and 70W. Cloud to 
surface lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas, and low 
visibility are ongoing within the areas of precipitation. The 
rainshowers are forecast to continue through Friday. Mariners who 
are transiting these regions should exercise caution. Please, 
refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast 
offices for specific local information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W, from 13N 
southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 16N southward between 20W and 33W, and
close to the monsoon trough/ITCZ. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 14N 
southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01S to 04N between
40W and 47W. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is 72W/73W, from 13N southward, 
moving westward 05 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: no
significant deep convective precipitation is in the Caribbean Sea.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is inland, within 120 nm on
either side of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W, from 14N 
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 12N to 15N between 79W
and the coast of NE Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of SW
Senegal, to 10N26W. The ITCZ is along 09N29W, 08N35W. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 07N to 10N between 12W and
17W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N
southward from 60W eastward. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 10N to 10N to 16N between
46W and 62W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
heavy rainfall that is in the SE Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front is along 29N/30N, between north Florida and the
Texas coast. Hazy conditions have been in the SW corner of the 
Gulf of Mexico, with the ongoing Mexico agricultural fires.

An elongated area of low pressure over the Florida peninsula 
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Despite strong upper-level winds, some gradual 
development is possible while the system moves northeastward 
offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast during the next couple of 
days. The showers and thunderstorms will be numerous in coverage 
and contain gusty winds and frequent lightning at times over the 
southeastern Gulf through at least Fri, and while a trough lingers
over the eastern and central Gulf. Looking ahead, a broad area of
low pressure could form this weekend over the southwestern Gulf 
of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow
development of this system early next week while the system moves
slowly westward or west-northwestward. Increasing winds and 
building seas are expected with this system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An inland NW-to-SE oriented surface trough passes through 20N101W
in Mexico, through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico,
to the Gulf of Honduras. Numerous strong rainshowers are in the
northern half of Guatemala. 

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 75W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica. Numerous strong rainshowers are within 180 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough between 74W and 78W. 

Moderate to fresh easterly winds are in the eastern one-third of
the area. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are from 18N southward 
between 66W and 78W. Gentle winds are from 14N southward from 77W
westward. Moderate SE winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean
Sea. Slight seas are within 120 nm of the coast of NE Nicaragua.
Moderate to rough seas are in the central one-third of the area.
Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

High pressure located NE of the area combined with the Colombian 
low and the passage of tropical waves will support fresh to strong
trade winds across the central Caribbean through Thu night. 
Moderate to fresh southeast winds are expected over the 
northwestern Caribbean likely through Fri as a trough of low 
pressure remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, 
scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue 
across portions of the northwestern Caribbean through the rest of 
the week as a surge of tropical moisture persists across the 
region. Looking ahead, expect increasing winds and building seas 
over the western Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, over 
the upcoming weekend as a broad area of low pressure possibly 
forms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the 
heavy rainfall that is in western Atlantic Ocean.

A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 31N60W 26N59W 22N57W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 21N to 25N between 49W
and 57W. 

A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is along 30N42W 23N47W 16N52W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is 
from 22N northward between 35W and 47W.

Strong NE winds are from 19N to 24N from 23W eastward. Fresh to 
strong E to SE winds are within 100 nm to the north of Hispaniola 
between 70W and 73W. Moderate NE winds are from 23N northward from
25W eastward. Moderate NE to E winds are from 17N to 25N between 
25W and 36W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are from 25N 
northward between 25W and 40W. Moderate or slower winds are in the
rest of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 
7 feet from 16N northward from 30W eastward. Slight seas are from 
18N to 24N between 54W and 70W, and elsewhere from 70W westward. 
Moderate seas, of 6 feet or lower, are in the rest of the Atlantic
Ocean.

An elongated area of low pressure over the Florida peninsula 
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Despite strong upper-level winds, some gradual 
development is possible while the system moves northeastward 
offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast during the next couple of 
days. The showers and thunderstorms will be numerous in coverage 
and contain gusty winds and frequent lightning at times over most 
of the western part of the forecast waters, mainly W of a line 
from 31N65W to 26N71W to 23N78W. Expect for little change with 
this convective activity through at least Fri. Fresh to strong 
southerly winds are expected over the western Atlantic ahead of 
this system during the next couple of days. High pressure will 
build S over the western Atlantic beginning this weekend and into 
early next week.

$$
mt/ja