000
AXNT20 KNHC 191052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jan 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near
Apalachicola, Florida southwestward to 26N91W and to inland 
Mexico just south of Tampico while a reinforcing cold front 
extends from near Mobile, Alabama to the NW Gulf. Strong to near 
gale northerly are over the NW and west-central Gulf sections. In 
the wake of these fronts, strong high pressure over the central 
U.S. will continue to build across the basin today, with the 
resultant tight gradient bringing a brief period of gale force 
winds to 35 kt this afternoon in the western Gulf waters offshore
of Tampico and Veracruz. Seas with these winds are forecast to 
peak to around 12 ft. The reinforcing front will quickly catch up
with leading front this morning. The cold front will then reach 
from central Florida to 24N90W and to near Veracruz by early this 
afternoon, from near western Cuba to the northeast Yucatan 
Peninsula by late tonight, then push a little more southward early
Mon before it stalls. Low pressure is expected to form over the 
NW Gulf on Mon night, then track southeastward through Wed, 
dragging a strong cold front across the entire basin. Strong high 
pressure behind the front will induce gale force north to 
northeast winds expanding across much of the northern and western 
Gulf Tue and Tue night, with the potential for gusts to storm 
force across portions of the central Gulf. Seas are expected to 
be in the high range with this next event. Mariners are urged to 
exercise extreme caution across the basin due to the expansive 
area of gale force winds and a large area of very rough to high 
seas that is expected to accompany this next frontal system. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic waters through the 
coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 
05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 03N30W to 03N40W and
to near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 
180 nm north of the ITCZ between 45W and 50W and within 120 nm
north of the ITCZ between 37W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for some sections of the western 
Gulf of Mexico. Please see the Special Features section for more 
information. 

Both latest satellite and radar imagery show a band of scattered
showers and thunderstorms moving northeast along the cold front
that extends from near Apalachicola, Florida southwestward to 
26N91W and to inland Mexico just south of Tampico. This activity 
reaches S to near 27N. Isolated showers are near the reinforcing 
cold front that extends from near mobile Alabama to the NW Gulf. 
Behind the the fronts, strong high pressure from the central U.S. 
is building across the region allowing for the advection of very 
cold and dry air presently over the western half of the Gulf. The 
gradient between the high pressure and the fronts is inducing 
strong to near gale northwest to north winds over the western Gulf
in the wake of the front. Seas with these winds are 8 to 12 ft. 
Seas elsewhere W of 90W are 6 to 8 ft. Fresh southwest winds are 
east of the first front N of 26N as seen in an overnight ASCAT 
satellite pass and as indicated by buoy 42036 near 28.5N84.5W. 
Similar type winds are also S of the front and E of 90W along with
seas of 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, please refer to the Special Features section 
for a detailed information about the forecast. Mariners are urged 
to exercise caution across the basin, including outside of the 
gale condition affected zones due to the expansive area of strong
to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas associated 
with the passage of two consecutive strong frontal systems. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor imagery reveals very dry air aloft from deep 
subsidence that is present over the basin. Fast moving isolated 
showers in the trade wind flow are possible east of about 70W.
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western 
Atlantic and the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trades
as was indicated by overnight ASCAT satellite date passes across
the basin. The exception is in the typical region, that is 
near and just offshore the coast of Colombia, where near gale-
force northeast to east winds exist. Seas are 7 to 11 ft in the 
eastern and central Caribbean, with the highest seas occurring off
Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh east to southeast winds along
with slight to moderate seas exist over the remainder of the sea.

For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will prevail 
across most of the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic waters into the
upcoming week, with locally strong winds developing each night 
offshore of Colombia, and through the Atlantic Passages and 
downwind of Hispaniola. Easterly trade wind swell will produce 
rough seas through the Atlantic Passages through the upcoming 
week. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will sink slowly southward 
across the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel tonight, then 
stall and weaken across the far northwestern Caribbean and western
Cuba Mon through Tue. Fresh to strong east winds and building 
seas will dominate most of the basin Mon night through Wed as 
strong high pressure builds north of the cold front. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from low pressure located off Cape Hatteras 
to the NW Bahamas. A stronger cold front is just along the U.S.
southeast coast. Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes indicated 
strong to near-gale south to southwest winds ahead of the front 
over the waters north of about 27N and between 65W and 73W. Seas 
with these winds are 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to locally fresh 
southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are behind the front. High 
pressure north of the area dominates the remainder of the SW North
Atlantic, with its associated gradient supporting moderate to 
locally strong easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft east of the 
southeastern Bahamas to near 45W.

In the far eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from low 
pressure well north of the region near the Azores to 31N35W and to
near 26N50W, where it transitions to a trough that reaches just 
east of the Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong southwest to
northwest winds are occurring north of 29N and between 25W and 
45W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of
a broad subtropical ridge positioned near the Canary Islands. The
pressure gradient between the subtropical ridging and comparatively
lower pressure in the deep tropics is allowing for fresh to 
strong trades along with seas of 8 to 10 ft S of about 23N. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are are 
present.

For the forecast W of 55W, the strong to near gale south to
southwest winds that are N of 27N and between 65W and 73W will 
gradually weaken as they lift north of 31N going into early Mon. 
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere S of 23N through 
the period, with winds pulsing to strong speeds east of the 
Windward Islands at times. The strong cold front that is currently
just along the southeast U.S. coast will move into the 
northwestern waters today preceded and followed by fresh to strong
winds N of 28N. The front will reach from near Bermuda to western
Cuba by Mon evening then stall on Tue. Scattered to numerous 
showers and thunderstorms, some strong, are expected to accompany 
this front. Another strong cold front is expected to move off the 
southeastern U.S. coast Tue night, and reach from near 31N73W to 
the Florida Keys by Wed morning. This front will be followed by 
strong to near-gale force north winds and building seas N of Cuba
and W of about 70W through Wed. Winds with frequent gusts to 
gale-force may occur N of 29N W of 77W Tue night.

$$
Aguirre