000
AXNT20 KNHC 210854
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Mar 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient between 
higher pressure building in the western Atlantic and lower 
pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trades in the
south- central part of the basin pulsing to gale-force speeds at 
night and into the early morning hours into early next week. Seas
of 8 to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds. Winds and 
seas will diminish by the middle of next week.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 10N14W and continues west-southwestward to 05N19W. 
The ITCZ extends from 01N23W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 03W 
and 13W. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N
to 04N between 25W and 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure is building into the Gulf waters, currently centered
over the NW Gulf. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-9 ft 
prevail SE of a line from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of 
Campeche. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 2-3 ft, are in the
vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of
4-6 ft are noted elsewhere.  

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will 
diminish today. High pressure will build in the Gulf, supporting 
moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds over the western and 
central Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern basin 
through this weekend. A surface trough will develop over the 
Yucatan Peninsula and move into the Bay of Campeche nightly 
through Sun, increasing winds to fresh to strong speeds in the 
Peninsula adjacent waters. The next cold front may enter the 
northwestern basin early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for
information on a Gale Warning.

A cold front is over the Yucatan channel. Moderate winds prevail
over the far NW Caribbean, with seas in the 3-4 ft range. Fresh to
strong winds, and seas of 8-9 ft are over the south central
waters, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere S of 15N and E of
78W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-5 ft, cover the
remainder of the Caribbean waters.  

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds offshore of 
Colombia and Venezuela will pulse to gale force offshore of 
Colombia each night and early morning into early next week. A cold
front entering the northwestern Caribbean will support moderate 
to fresh NE winds and moderate seas in the wake of the front 
through this morning. The front will dissipate today. Fresh to 
occasionally strong NE winds will pulse in the Windward Passage 
and in the lee of Cuba into early next week. Fresh to strong SE 
winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras late this weekend 
into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the NW portion of the discussion waters. 
Fresh to strong winds are E of the front with strong to near- gale
force winds S of the front. Seas over these waters are in the 
9-10 ft range. Farther east, a cold front enters the waters near 
31N51W and extends SW to near 27N55W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is within 90 nm SE of the front. A 
surface trough is SE of the front, with an area of scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection in the vicinity of the 
trough. Fresh to strong winds are found N of 26N and E of the 
front to near 47W. Subsiding W to NW swell ushered in by these 
features is supporting 8-locally 12 ft seas over the waters N of 
18N between 50W and 67W. High pressure dominates the eastern 
Atlantic, anchored by a 1029 high centered near 38N35W. Gentle to 
moderate winds prevail across the eastern Atlantic. Seas of 8-11 
ft are noted N of 16N and E of 31W, with seas in the 5-7 ft range 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas E of 63W will subside 
today. A cold front from 31N75W to S Florida will progress 
eastward, with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front, and 
strong to near- gale force winds and locally very rough seas 
behind the front into early Sat. Fresh trade winds and rough seas 
are expected to develop east of the Windward Islands this weekend 
into early next week. High pressure will build in the wake of the 
front over the western Atlantic this weekend. 

$$
AL