405 
AXNT20 KNHC 231703
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Mar 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1655 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between a
subtropical ridge located north of the Caribbean Sea and lower
pressures in northern Colombia will continue to support pulsing 
winds to gale force offshore of Colombia tonight and Mon night. A
recent scatterometer pass captured strong to gale-force easterly
winds over much of the south-central Caribbean Sea. Seas will 
build to 14 ft with the strongest winds. Fresh to strong easterly
winds will continue to affect the south-central Caribbean through
the work week.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N15W and continues southward to 04N17W. The
ITCZ extends from 04N17W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed south of 08N and east of 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure situated over the eastern Gulf promotes moderate to
fresh return southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft over west of 90W.
East of 90W, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent. Generally dry conditions are found across the
basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail over the Gulf,
supporting moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds over the 
western and central Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the 
eastern basin early this week. A surface trough will develop over 
the Yucatan Peninsula and move into the Bay of Campeche nightly 
through early this week, supporting pulses of fresh to locally 
strong winds over adjacent waters. The next cold front may enter 
the northern basin late Mon, but will likely dissipate as it moves
into the central and eastern Gulf through Tue night. High 
pressure building over the northeastern Gulf in the wake of the 
front will support moderate to fresh SE winds and building seas 
across the northwest Gulf by Thu. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect offshore Colombia. Please, refer
to the Special Features section above for more information.

Pockets of low-level moisture are traversing the Caribbean Sea and
supporting isolated showers. Some of this activity is impacting 
Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. A recent scatterometer 
satellite pass indicate that outside of the gale area, fresh to 
near gale-force easterly winds are present in the north-central 
and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to rough seas are occurring in 
these waters. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and 
moderate seas are noted in the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds offshore of Colombia
and Venezuela will pulse to gale force offshore of Colombia
tonight and possibly Mon night. Fresh to occasionally strong NE 
winds will pulse in the Windward Passage tonight. Fresh to strong
SE winds will extend across the Gulf of Honduras tonight into
mid-week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from the north-central Atlantic to the
central Bahamas and another surface trough is noted in the central
Atlantic. A few shallow showers are noted near these boundaries.
The tropical Atlantic is dominates broad ridging, allowing for
moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough seas west
of 35W. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge near
the Azores and lower pressures in NW Africa support fresh to near
gale-force N-NE winds east of 35W and north of 15W. Seas in these
waters are rough to very rough, with the highest seas near 14 ft
occurring off Morocco. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build over the
western Atlantic, supporting gentle breezes and slight to 
moderate seas north of 22N early this week. The area of high 
pressure will shift eastward Mon enabling a weak cold front to 
move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night. Fresh to strong 
winds may pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola into mid 
week. Another cold front may move into waters between northeast 
Florida and Bermuda Wed. 

$$
Delgado